Day Trading Radar
15-minute timeframe analysis with Daily Pivot Points for intraday trading setups.
EUR/USD
Radar Methodology & Math
Transparent overview of how we calculate trends, signals, and projections.
Day Trading Radar (Intraday)
Timeframe: 15-Minute Charts
Context: Daily Pivot Points & Dual-EMA System
What is "Aiden's Bias"?
Aiden's Bias is a Quant Score that combines 60% Fundamentals (COT, Seasonality, Risk) and 40% Technicals.
- BULL: Fundamentals & Technicals are aligned upwards.
- BEAR: Fundamentals & Technicals are aligned downwards.
- Note: Since this includes Fundamentals, it may diverge from the immediate price action (e.g., Fundamental Bullish divergence during a price drop).
Trend Direction (EMA System)
We use a 21-period and 55-period EMA on the 15-minute chart.
- BULLISH: Price > 21 EMA > 55 EMA.
- BEARISH: Price < 21 EMA < 55 EMA.
- NEUTRAL: Moving Averages are crossed or price is chopping between them.
Signal Strength (Custom MACD Filter)
We use a Custom MACD (21, 55, 8) to align momentum with our EMA trend structure.
- Aggressive: MACD Histogram is expanding in the direction of the trend (Momentum increasing).
- Conservative: MACD Histogram is contracting (Momentum slowing), suggesting caution even if trend is intact.
"Neutral" Warning Explained
A Neutral status often appears during reversals. If price spikes up, it may be above the EMAs, but if the 21 EMA is still below the 55 EMA, the structural trend hasn't turned yet. We flag this to prevent entering false breakouts.
The Math: Pivots & Projections
We are transparent about our levels. We use Standard Daily Pivot Points derived from the previous day's High (H), Low (L), and Close (C).
Pivot Baseline
Pivot (P) = (H + L + C) / 3
Standard & M-Pivots
Standard: R1, S1, R2, S2 derived from H/L/C.
M-Pivots (Mid-Points):
M3 = (PP + R1) / 2
M2 = (PP + S1) / 2
M4 = (R1 + R2) / 2
M1 = (S1 + S2) / 2
Projections (Cone)
Base: Linear Regression Slope + Seasonal Drift.
Bands: Annualized Volatility (StdDev) scaled by time.
Upper = Base + (Vol × √Time)
Lower = Base - (Vol × √Time)
Swing & Position Math
For longer-term radars, we strip away intraday noise and focus purely on displacement over time.
Understanding Conflicting Signals
Why is the Signal Bearish but Projections are Bullish?
This occurs during Counter-Trend Corrections.
- Projections (Fan): Based on the Daily/Weekly trend and Average Daily Range (ADR). If the broader trend is UP, the fan points up.
- Signal (Arrow): Based on immediate 15-minute price action. If price drops sharply, the signal flips BEAR.
- Meaning: Price is pulling back within a larger uptrend. Do not short blindly; look for support at the Pivots.
Decoding the "Neutral" Warning
"Price broken below 21/55 EMAs"
- What it means: Price has crossed below the EMAs (momentum is down), but the 21 EMA is still above the 55 EMA (structure is bullish).
- Why it matters: Momentum leads, structure lags. This warning prevents you from chasing a breakdown until the trend structure actually flips.